Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $177,938$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,666.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 65.1)}}\) (asimptote \(187,666.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,506$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,846.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,846.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,842$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,823$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(274 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,415.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,415.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $275$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(10.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(335.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,260$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $173,036$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,913.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(162,913.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,746$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(999 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,559.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,559.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,451$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,355$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,904.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $299$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(78.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(284.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,888$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,507$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,614.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,614.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $284$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(279.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,206$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $112,288$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,257.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129,257.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $819$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(37.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,515$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,595$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,909.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99,909.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,116$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,200$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(213 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,004.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,004.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,060$ on 2020-06-10