Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Japan
  • Georgia
  • Malaysia
  • Singapore

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $177,938$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,666.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 65.1)}}\) (asimptote \(187,666.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,506$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,846.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,846.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,842$ on 2020-06-10

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,823$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(274 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,415.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,415.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $275$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(10.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(335.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,260$ on 2020-06-10

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $173,036$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,913.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(162,913.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,746$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(999 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,559.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,559.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,451$ on 2020-06-10

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,355$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,904.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $299$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(78.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(284.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,888$ on 2020-06-10

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,507$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,614.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,614.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $284$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(279.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,206$ on 2020-06-10

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $112,288$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,257.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129,257.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $819$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(37.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,515$ on 2020-06-10

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,595$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,909.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99,909.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,116$ on 2020-06-10

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,200$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(213 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,004.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,004.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,060$ on 2020-06-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Japan recovered 92%
Turkey recovered 73%
Georgia recovered 66%
Malaysia recovered 54%
Singapore recovered 40%
Maldives recovered 40%
Kuwait recovered 35%
Sri Lanka recovered 22%
Iran recovered 17%
Kazakhstan recovered 15%
Tajikistan recovered 7%

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,146$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,753.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,753.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $922$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(93.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{960.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(960.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,007$ on 2020-06-10

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $827$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(122 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{801.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(801.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $124$ on 2020-06-10

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,338$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,642.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,642.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $118$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(52 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 17.2)}}\) (asimptote \(113.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,206$ on 2020-06-10

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,965$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(693 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,550.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(38,550.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,408$ on 2020-06-10